Texas is the new Sweeden

[bill_schubert]

We've gone full herd immunity around here.  I went out to a convenience store after we got back last night.  Other than the Plexiglas between me and the guy ringing me up I was the only one that showed any indication things had changed in the past couple of months.  I was wearing my mask (and went back home quickly to wash my hands) but of a dozen or so shoppers and gas pumpers none had masks.  They weren't exactly hugging each other but social distancing seemed to be about the same as it always was in these kind of stores.

Pro:    The latest reports say that until 2/3 of the world's population is immune (presumably through sickness OR inoculation acquired antibodies) we'll be on this carousel.  Combine that with a China report that 3/5 of those who tested positive showed no symptoms.  It makes for an interesting frame for the convenience store picture.  A lot of people around here believe that they are immortal or don't believe this whole Covid thing is real (we are just north and firmly in Alex Jones territory).

Con:    Obviously filling up the hospitals is not optimal.  There is an estimated population of 13000 over 60 years old living five miles north of us.  Our 'senior' population is large around her in addition to Sun City.  Fortunately these people (me included) do not have to interact much with the unmasked masses.  Texas is not going to institute mandatory anything so the majority will remain unmasked and not caring.  I think we'll have a grand experiment here.

I'll be in my home but when necessary to go forth unmasked.  For record purposes here is where we are in Williamson County on the first day of the Texas Open(ing):

As of 1 May 2020 - Day 1 of reopening Texas

Comments

[zoefruitcake.livejournal.com]

I've not heard that statistic, that 2/3 of the world population is immune. I really hope that is the case

[bill-schubert.livejournal.com]

You made me go back and read what I wrote. No, unfortunately that's not the case. The report (https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/default/files/public/downloads/cidrap-covid19-viewpoint-part1.pdf). I actually quoted a quote of a quote. The original is rather densely mathematical. Here is the interpretation:

"Given the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, 60% to 70% of the
population may need to be immune to reach a critical threshold of herd immunity to halt the pandemic"

The report from CIDRAP (Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy) is actually very readable and interprets the math so that it is understandable for us mortals.

Bottom line is that we're still 18-20 months away from anything resembling normalcy depending on the efficacy and distribution of any vaccination. Without the vaccination, doing it the Swedish way is likely to result in fatality rate between 0.25 and 3.0% of the country's population. That is kind of grim given the US population of 330 million.

[zoefruitcake.livejournal.com]

Oh right. Oh well, it did sound too good to be true. I guess I am just hoping to wake up to some miracle cure/vaccine having been found

[mrdreamjeans.livejournal.com]

My friend Coy lives very near you. SO, I'll be following along with your postings of Stats in Williamson County. I am really worried for my sister. She's in a couple of high risk categories and is in Pflugerville. My brother is out in Kerrville; his part of the family are going about business as usual. It's my understanding there are no active cases of Covid-19 in his County. I hope you and your wife stay healthy!

[bill-schubert.livejournal.com]

When we picked up the dog on Thursday we went to the owner's house at a lake outside of Tyler. She came out of the house and immediately hugged Dana and shook my hand. I really cringed but was raised with too many manners to refuse contact. I was very aware of my hands until I could get back to the car with sanitizer.

It puts me in the mind of Kerrville and all those in more remote parts of the counties. Their experience, temperament, and viewpoint are so different than those of higher population density and different areas of the country.