Sweden in Texas

[bill_schubert]

While calling the rising number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations “unacceptable,” Gov. Greg Abbott on Monday said he has no plans to shut down the state again.

“We must find ways to return to our daily routines as well as finding ways to coexist with COVID-19,” Abbott said in a news conference. “Closing down Texas again will always be the last option.”

His remarks come one day after Texas set its tenth consecutive record for COVID-19 hospitalizations, with state health officials reporting 3,409 patients in Texas hospitals Sunday.

The Texas Department of State Health Services is expected to release Monday’s totals later in the afternoon.

New COVID-19 cases also set a record Saturday, with 4,430 cases reported that day. State health officials attributed that jump in part to a data entry backlog in Harris County. On Sunday, the health agency reported 3,866 new cases.

Texas is going to do the Sweden experiment.  The LT Gov long ago said he was willing to sacrifice a few old people while building up to herd immunity so they are carrying that out (along with the bodies).

My resolve to out live the LT Gov is hardened.  Dana and I just had a discussion about hunkering down.  I do it more than she does and have not really had a social interaction with anyone other than hi to the neighbors IRL since March and it appears that will be our norm now.

Senior hours at Whole Foods and Costco, walks with the dogs and bike rides with me are going to be the norm.  Otherwise, find out how to keep myself intact and inside and far from the madding crowd.

Herd immunity is 60% infection of the community.  At the moment the population percentage that has contracted Covid in Texas is .0038 so we have a ways to go.  The number is probably higher than that since Texas early on took the Trump approach and minimized testing.  But, still, we are going to have a vaccine before herd immunity.

Comments

[daphnep.livejournal.com]

Herd immunity depends on illness conferring immunity, which has not yet been demonstrated. I read an article over the weekend that estimated that immunity may last only a period of a few *months* after infection. If that is true, we’re *never* going to get herd immunity, it will be like the common cold, in that a good portion of people get reinfected seasonally. We just don’t know yet. The hope of herd immunity is based on hopes, not what they’re actually learning about the virus.

[bill-schubert.livejournal.com]

There are so many random variables with Covid that it will be years before they find any dependable trends, if then. From that point of view I agree with leadership, we've got to find a way to move forward. But why we're not making masks mandatory like seatbelts and smoking outside and all of the rest of the 'infringements on individual freedoms' is beyond me. The Gov was asked that specific question and he gave a non answer about how big Texas was and how diverse so we can't have regulations across the state. Other than seat belts, smoking, drinking and all the other laws that are enforced in the empty west Texas and urban Houston.

[daphnep.livejournal.com]

*LOL*

I just imagined the "Texas is too big and diverse" argument being used for seatbelts. Yeah, you're right.

I'm old enough, though, to remember that there WERE arguments about seatbelt laws, and accusations of those restricting freedoms, etc....they went away over time. And people buckled up. And now it's so normal we can't even remember when it wasn't. So maybe masks will be the same thing, eventually...though I hope to god we don't need them long enough for that to happen. But I presume that after this, there will be other viruses too, so...maybe.

[msconduct.livejournal.com]

They were expecting 40% immunity in Sweden by the end of May. Instead, it was 6%.

[bill-schubert.livejournal.com]

Wow. Didn't see that but it does not really surprise me. Among many other things this whole Covid thing is the largest social experiment since the second world war. It is the unpredictability of the disease, the seeming random variables, that confound everyone.

[msconduct.livejournal.com]

Absolutely - there's still so much to learn about it. I've seen the suggestion recently that it's actually a disease of the blood vessels, which would make sense given the wide range of organs it affects. I'm hopeful about a British vaccine under development that's an oral vaccine which specifically affects the mucosa, which again makes a lot of sense. Human trials in August.

[bill-schubert.livejournal.com]

Very interesting. Yeah, the world will be 20 years out before the full understanding of even the outline of the medicine, sociology, demographics, etc is available. It will be another 20 before the historians have it fully figured out.

One truism of any war (and this is another kind of world war) is that medicine makes great leaps forward. It is a weirdly positive outcome of combat (think artificial limbs and penicillin). Epidemiology will make vast leaps of knowledge now which, in the long run, will probably save many millions more people over the next century. long after the bunker baby is gone and is only the purview of comedy.

[msconduct.livejournal.com]

Yes, indeedy! Along similar lines, as part of my psychology Masters I wrote a research paper on the impact on 20th century warfare on the development of psychology. As with the other areas you mention, warfare made a huge impact on psychology too. It's one of those great disruptors that pushes everything forward.

[bill-schubert.livejournal.com]

Oh, yeah, lots of Masters' thesis papers will be written on all of this.

[zoefruitcake.livejournal.com]

Keep safe

[bill-schubert.livejournal.com]

Thanks. We're being careful.